E1 Asset Management

Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Dow Egg Timer

Historically, it takes the Dow Jones Industrial Average about 500 days to advance through a 1000 point mark (from its last). Today, some 199 days after eclipsing 12000, the Dow is 80 points away from the magical, yet technically unimportant level of 13,000.

Is it too much too soon?

Do the numbers still work since going from Dow 1000 to Dow 2000 is a 100% gain; versus the new mark of 8.3%?

While the post bubble period set the major averages back quite a bit—resulting in an 1196 day lag between 10,000 and 11,000—we have since eclipsed the 2000 high comfortably.

The big concerns from the end of February all seem to have disappeared with the Shanghai Index’s Bull Run to new highs as well, despite a slough of negative articles on the Chinese banking sector. The “A” Index closed yesterday at 3910 after beginning the year at 2815.






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Tuesday, April 10, 2007

“Sar-Boxed In”

The Securities and Exchange Commission is by far the world’s most foremost agency for regulating securities (and the markets they trade on) and protecting investors. It was created by Congress with the intention of making investing more transparent, deterring practices such as manipulation and fraud.

In the wake of Enron, WorldCom and the accounting/governance debacle, the Sarbanes-Oxley bill was passed in 2002. Named after Paul Sarbanes (D-MD) and Michael Oxley (R-OH), the act introduced reforms in several key areas, in an effort to shore up confidence in US markets and reform the accounting industry, which became way too cozy with consulting and business—thereby compromising their integrity and independence as auditors.

Nearly 5 years have passed and the bill has accomplished its goals, but has had several unpleasant secondary and tertiary effects. For instance, the bill has complicated the oversight functions of Congress, the SEC and FASB.

Sar-box has also made it a timely process to stay in compliance with the various provisions and as a result many corporations have formed positions to solely maintain their good standing, creating more corporate red tape.

This has also made many smaller and medium size enterprises reluctant to look to the public markets to raise capital, as the added expense of acquiescing is too expensive and difficult. As a result, New York City has lost its moniker as “Financial Capitol of the World” to London, as more US based companies are looking to list on the AIM or LSE to seek the necessary funding to expand or bulk up their R&D divisions.

The penalty for noncompliance is also quite hefty. While I am not a prosecutor or criminal, the sentence dealt to Bernie Ebbers seems quite steep—as he will likely serve more time than child molesters and violent offenders (including some murder verdicts!).

Requiring CEO’s to sign off on all financials may also not make the amount of sense currently, as it did back in 2001-2002. Many of the best business leaders and innovators are visionaries, not the nuts and bolts type, forcing them to rely on the advice of internal auditors, legal counsel and administrators to certify their quarterly and annual reports. One major unintended consequence is simply a flight of human capital from corporate leadership. Many of our finest influential businesspersons are simply not technocrats and would not be satisfied to be “on the hook” for someone else’s work, when it comes to putting their name on the dotted line. Can you blame them?
I firmly believe that the White House, Capitol Hill, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Federal (Reserve) Open Market Committee and the FASB need to convene a review of this controversial act. This does not come down to partisanship, politics or power—simply examining the dwindling position of American competitiveness in capital markets and investment. We are ceding investment banking, trading, IDFI (Indirect Foreign Investment for both new listings and ADR’s) entrepreneurial advantage, liquidity—not to mention shaving (who knows how much off) of GDP.

It is up to our Government to literally take the advice of Adam Smith and take their hands off our economy. Protecting the little guy is one thing, impeding growth and commerce is another. Since Chairman Cox has done a brilliant job running the SEC in terms of regulation and protection; he can quite easily cash in some of his political capital, not to mention he has friends and colleagues on both sides of the aisle from his days representing California in the House.

Wednesday, April 04, 2007

An Unexpected “Pardon;”

An Unexpected “Pardon;”

A Merger of Un-equals,

The Negotiator-in-Chief takes a Hit

While I clearly expected diplomacy to prevail in the matter of the 15 British Sailors and Marines held hostage by Iran after allegedly entering their waters, I did not expect their President Ahmadinejad to issue a pardon securing their release.

Markets have taken the development in stride, with oil sliding about 1.25% in early trading and a mixed reception in equities markets in Europe and the NYSE open.

Today also marks the integration of the NYSE-Euronext Merger, a truly global equity market that would have been considered a pipe-dream just a decade ago. This follows a pattern of consolidation across the world in the markets enterprise, as commodities, equities and debt exchanges boost liquidity and market-share via acquisitions. Whether or not this will be accretive to earnings or even work for that matter (think corporate culture clashes ala Daimler-Chrysler) is yet to be seen.

Some exchanges have sought to retain their national identity, as the London Stock Exchange continues to rebuff offers from our electronic marketplace, NASDAQ. London clearly has leverage as the city has become the pinnacle of international finance in the wake of regulatory-friendly environs, as Sarbanes-Oxley continues to erect hurdles domestically and foster capital outflows for IPO’s and other financing.

Finally, President Bush’s status as sole trade negotiator on the part of the US is set to expire shortly and it looks unlikely that it will be extended. The process in Congress (a straightforward, simple, up-or-down vote) is far less complicated than the political wrangling it would require to renew such authority. An emboldened Democratic Party, boosted by incompetence on the part of the White House and violence in Iraq—has fully restored the backing of organized labor (renamed “new labor”) and would require tremendous sacrifice on the part of the White House to even get the resolution to a vote.

With a new deal just announced on the Korean Peninsula, further boosting trade abroad and stimulating the free flow of capital globally, this may mark the last unless the WH really pushes at Doha and makes additional concessions to South American deals that are currently pending.

The loss of free trade and the distinct possibility of a major tax increase (conveniently labeled by democrats as “the expiration of the Bush Tax Cuts”) could significantly hurt the economy and the markets. This would signal a major blow to the path we have been on since President Clinton’s historic NAFTA bill which got the ball rolling and has been a major driving force behind domestic growth.

Here is a look at the NYSE:






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