E1 Asset Management

Wednesday, November 29, 2006

Friedman vs. Keynes

New York’s senior Senator Chuck Schumer, a democrat, recently pronounced the death of “Reaganomics.” To be fair, he also went as far as to lament that the bedrock of his party’s socio-economic agenda, “the New Deal,” as basically suffering an equal defeat.

His quote, from the NY Daily News’ “Daily Politics Blog” on 11/28/2006:

"We're in better shape than [Republicans] are, because they don't realize that Reaganomics is dead, that the Reagan philosophy is dead," he said. "We realize that New Deal democracy, which is still our paradigm, which is sort of appeal to each group ... that doesn't work any more."

While I do not care to speak to the latter—I take serious issue with the former.
With all due respect, sorry Chuck, you are dead wrong on this one (as well as many others discussed previously in this blog, mainly the “China Tariff”).

For those unfamiliar with the policy, “Reaganomics” is defined by lowering taxes, cutting social spending, increased defense spending and the deregulation of American markets. The Reagan philosophy that Senator Schumer referred to was the President’s belief in limited government, which aptly dovetails with the economic schemata.

While clearly President George W. Bush is no Ronald Reagan—it is very true that he is strongly committed to the economic ideals and principals of his policy, the exception being —cutting social spending (this has actually increased under President Bush). But let’s take a step back first, shall we?

President Reagan inherited an economy plagued with double digit unemployment and inflation, dubbed “stagflation” for its seemingly inability to shake the maladies of the Carter administration’s economic policies and the OPEC crisis.

By reducing the top marginal tax bracket from 70% (yes, 70%) to 35%, presiding over the largest military buildup in history and curtailing the spending extravaganza of the democratic controlled congress (rubber stamped by President Peanut Farmer)—the United States awoke the sleeping the economic giant within.

These policies encouraged risk taking. Small businesses emerged as lending rates made loans less like highway robbery and more like a bedrock that could serve as a beginning to a return on capital. It was under the Reagan administration that markets opened to many of these small companies, some which you may have heard of: Microsoft, Intel, Dell Computer and Wal-Mart, just to name a few.
Needless to say, inflation and unemployment plummeted, GDP soared and morale was restored—the “can-do” attitude that once pervaded the social fabric of our fine country was back.

It was during the 1990’s that many of these companies founded with seed capital during the Reagan years went public, which fed into the technology revolution—sending the Dow above 10,000 and the NASDAQ to 5000. These companies not only led to a stock market boom, they literally changed the way we did business. For starters, the internet made business increasing global, as well as improved the supply chain for every industry. As productivity increased, inflation decreased. Business became efficient.

Flash to today. While social spending continues to grow unchecked, the economy has been resilient in the face of many calamities, not to mention 9-11, Hurricane Katrina, record energy prices—as the Bush Tax Cuts (combined with provisions for accelerated amortization and depreciation) have back-stopped our infrastructure. President Bush has also presided over one of the largest military buildups in history, which has created countless higher-paying jobs in the aeronautical and defense industries; requiring copious amounts of resources (metals, oil, gas, etc.) which has led to a boom in the minerals industry as well.

So sorry Chuck, Reaganomics are alive and well. And by the way, they work.

Tuesday, November 21, 2006

Still Room for Santa?

Over the past six weeks the market has throttled forward, eclipsing old highs and showing no sign of slowing. This is a bit scary for many bulls, as the VIX, Put-Call and sentiment indicators suggest that fear is not on the minds of investors.

In addition, with these gargantuan gains coming before “Black Friday,” one has to wonder if a record setting holiday season has already been discounted into the price of the market. If that is the case, a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” December may be in order.

To support this theory is the hubbub surrounding the ever prolonged release of the Playstation 3 (which lead to rioting, violence and a lot of unhappy empty-handed customers) and the rival Nintendo Wii. Both lived up to their debut hype and have created a seller’s market on online auction sites, with offers surpassing the thousand dollar mark in the case of the PS3. It is usually this type of fervor (think Furby, Tickle-me-Elmo, etc.) that has proceeded the years which retailers made a killing.

At any rate, the S&P Retail Index has risen sharply since the summer doldrums:



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Friday, November 17, 2006

A Hero’s Farewell

Milton Friedman, the Nobel Laureate winning Economist passed away yesterday at the grand age of 94 years. He was a brilliant man in every sense of the word—accomplished author, advisor to Presidents and Prime Ministers and a great philanthropist.

Beginning with Arthur Burns, to Paul Volcker, to Alan Greenspan, to the present Chairman of the Federal Reserve; Milton Friedman’s theory of Money Supply—as related to unemployment, GDP and Inflation is still utilized today.

His theory of smaller Government was embraced by President Reagan and his counterpart across the pond, Lady Thatcher, leading to a boom in commerce in the 1980’s—lifting America from the doldrums of stagflation and lifting Britain’s economy from the stranglehold of the bureaucrats that preceded her.

He wrote what many consider to be the Capitalist Manifesto of our time, Capitalism and Freedom, 44 years ago. He brought the phrase, “there is no such thing as a free lunch” into the mainstream and continued to be a stalwart of the Op-Ed pages to the day he died.

He will be missed by all. Rest in Peace.

Wednesday, November 15, 2006

Airplane

At times I wonder which is funnier, the movie Airplane, or our government’s policy toward the airline industry. Sadly, I must admit for all the laughs and gags in movie—the humor of continually backing a failing industry with taxpayer money watching the same companies go bankrupt or get “bailed out” every several years is downright hysterical.

Despite the failings of air travel, President Bush provided the “Big Three” automakers with some sound advice yesterday, without the typical bureaucratic trappings of throwing money at the problem.

In summary, the President made the following suggestions:

1. Make better cars—meaning more desirable models and improving the quality of their vehicles.
2. Get their health care programs under control. These costs number in the thousands of dollars per car, which is crushing their margins

And perhaps most importantly:

3. Stop “giving away” cars. If you make products people want, they will pay more money for them.

This is sage-like advice from a politician. Kudos to President Bush for managing to avoid the pitfalls of many of his predecessors—and with any luck, sometime soon I may prefer the movie Airplane over its competition.



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As US Automobile Manufacturers begin to spin/sell off underperforming assets and get costs under control, the index has broken its long-term downtrend.

Friday, November 10, 2006

There You Have It….

Democrats successfully captured both the House and Senate, with the concession of Senator George Allen (R-VA) late afternoon yesterday. While the GOP did a tremendous job of shooting themselves in their collective feet—corruption, lack of meaningful legislation, straying from the mandate that brought them to power, etc.—they are clearly down, but not for the count.

The democratic majority is slim—razor thin to be precise. The incoming congress will have little impact as far as far reaching reform. However, they will have a clear shot at the Bush administration and unearthing many of the classified and buried reports on Iraq, Katrina and other potentially embarrassing events.

More importantly, as predicted here last week—Big Oil and Big Pharma are going to be in a world of hurt. These are top items in the newly constructed “to-do” list that has been making the beltway rounds. Defense companies may also suffer as Senator Carl Levin (D-MI) will replace Senator John McCain (R-AZ) for investigating and subsequently approving weapons procurements.

On one final note, I would like to congratulate President Bush on refusing to play politics with the war effort. Should he have replaced Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld prior to the election, surely the GOP would have picked up a few seats—but it would have been very wrong, morally bankrupt if you will. The President demonstrated the type of leadership becoming of his office and for that, I am proud of him and proud to be an American.

Monday, November 06, 2006

November Surprise

Should the GOP strategists successfully “turn out the base,” the incumbents may yet turn out a “November surprise.” As of now, Republicans trail in nearly all the Congressional races to be decided tomorrow, but have managed to substantially narrow the gap over the weekend.

President Bush has been hitting the campaign trail hard, highlighting the need for steady leadership in the Iraq war, as well as excellent GOP stewardship of the economy. Last Friday’s employment report backed up his rhetoric with a booming month of job creation, further revisions higher from September and a record low 4.4% unemployment rate.

The White House led off with this statement (from www.Whitehouse.gov ):

Job Creation Continues – More Than 6.8 Million Jobs Created Since August 2003

Today, The Government Released New Jobs Figures – 92,000 Jobs Created In October. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4 percent, the lowest rate since May 2001. Payrolls have now increased 470,000 over the past 3 months and more than 1.9 million over the past 12 months. Since August 2003, more than 6.8 million jobs have been created - more jobs than all the other major industrialized countries combined. Our economy has now added jobs for 38 straight months.

The American Economy Remains Strong And Continues To Grow

• Real Wages Grew 2.4 Percent Over The Past 12 Months. This means an extra $755 for the average full-time production worker or about $1,327 for the typical family of four with two wage earners.

• Real After-Tax Income Per Person Has Risen By 9.8 Percent – $2,660 – Since The President Took Office.

• Our Economy Has Grown A Solid 2.9 Percent Over The Past Four Quarters – Faster Than Any Other Major Industrialized Country.

• Productivity Has Grown At An Annual Rate Of 3 Percent Since The First Quarter Of 2001, Up From A 2.4 Percent Annual Rate During The Preceding Five Years.
• Gas Prices Have Fallen Almost 82 Cents A Gallon Since Early August.

• Employment Has Increased In All But One State Over The Past 12 Months Ending In September.
While market players are well aware of the old adage, “gridlock is good”—it is fair to say that another Election Day passing without a clear outcome could be very bad in the short term. When elections are battled out in the courtroom, the only winner are the party’s lawyers—while the notable loser is the confidence of the American (and global to an extent) public. Past elections without definitive winners have put a dent in consumer confidence and could provide a serious hamper on the feel-good atmosphere that engulfs Wall Street and Main Street during the holidays.

I firmly believe the tightness in Congressional races have been the driver behind the Dow’s 6 day losing streak. With more races moving within the margin of error, the likelihood of the courtroom scenario grows.



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